Dr. Marwan Muasher, Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment and former Deputy Prime Minister of Jordan, said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks to prolong the war on Gaza to maintain his government rather than to achieve decisive military objectives.

In a Radio Al-Balad interview with colleague Mohammad Al-Arsan, Muasher pointed out that the idea of re-occupying Gaza faces opposition from the Israeli military and security agencies due to its high military and human costs, suggesting that Netanyahu is leaning toward alternatives such as handing Gaza over to an Arab force.

Muasher warned against attempts to forcibly displace hundreds of thousands of Gaza residents, affirming that the positions of both Jordan and Egypt are strongly opposed, and that Gazans are determined to remain on their land. He also called on the international community to take practical measures after recognizing the State of Palestine by pressuring Israel and activating International Court of Justice rulings.

Muasher considered that while the establishment of a Palestinian state may seem distant in the near term, it is inevitable in the long run due to demographic realities that make continued occupation impossible.

Re-occupying Gaza: Between Realism and Political Ambition

The interview began with the possibility of Israel re-occupying the Gaza Strip, a subject that generates widespread debate. Muasher noted that re-occupation is not certain for several reasons, including internal opposition from Israeli security agencies and the military, which is suffering from exhaustion due to the ongoing conflict. He explained that the Israeli army is not in good shape, relying heavily on reservists whose turnout is declining. Additionally, re-occupying Gaza would expose the army to daily losses, making the operation militarily unfeasible.

Muasher added that Prime Minister Netanyahu has retreated from his initial statements about fully re-occupying Gaza, now favoring the idea of "controlling" it instead, with a proposal to later hand over the territory to an Arab force. Muasher sees this retreat as reflecting the military and political challenges Israel faces.

Netanyahu’s Goals: Prolonging the War for Political Purposes

Discussing Netanyahu’s motives, Muasher affirmed that the war on Gaza, which has lasted over two years, has exhausted its military objectives—a view shared by Israeli society and even the United States. Nevertheless, he believes Netanyahu seeks two main goals: first, to extend the lifespan of his government, since ending the war might prompt right-wing coalition partners like Smotrich and Ben Gvir to withdraw, threatening the government's fall; second, to advance the Zionist project by destroying as much infrastructure in Gaza as possible and killing or displacing the largest possible number of Palestinians.

Muasher noted that Netanyahu does not care about the fate of Israeli hostages, as continuing the war could lead to their deaths, placing him in an even greater political crisis. He added that Israeli society is increasingly leaning toward right-wing extremism, with evident disregard for Palestinian suffering, including the now undeniable famine.

Displacement and the Positions of Egypt and Jordan

The interview touched on the displacement plans Israel seeks to implement. Israeli media have reported plans to forcibly relocate approximately 900,000 Palestinians from Gaza City to the southern Gaza Strip, which Muasher considers a form of forced displacement. He confirmed that Egypt and Jordan have explicitly rejected any such displacement, equating it with a declaration of war. Egypt’s position is firm, having closed its borders to Palestinian entry, supporting the Palestinian cause by preventing the emptying of Palestinian lands.

He also noted that Palestinians themselves insist on remaining in their lands despite extermination and famine, making displacement attempts highly unlikely. Moreover, any attempt to displace Palestinians from the West Bank into Jordan constitutes a threat to Jordan’s national security and would amount to the liquidation of the Palestinian cause at Jordan’s expense—a completely unacceptable scenario.

International Isolation of Israel

Regarding the international stance, Muasher pointed out that Israel is facing unprecedented isolation, with countries like Germany and Italy, traditionally supportive, now opposing its policies. He explained that Germany’s halt in arms exports to Israel is an important development. Furthermore, recognition of the State of Palestine by more than 14 European countries reflects a shift in international attitude, though he warned that such recognition must be followed by concrete legal and political steps to pressure Israel, such as boycotting settlement products and adhering to International Court of Justice rulings.

Annexation of the West Bank and Demographic Challenges

On West Bank annexation, Muasher explained that Israel seeks to annex land but not its Palestinian population to avoid changing the demographic balance that could threaten its Jewish character. He noted that the number of Palestinians in areas controlled by Israel (7.5 million) exceeds the number of Israeli Jews (7.2 million), making it impossible to sustain a racist regime ruling over a Palestinian majority in the long term. He added that Israel tries to concentrate Palestinians in West Bank cities like Ramallah and Nablus as a prelude to annexing the largest possible land area, with the possible displacement of others to Jordan—a scenario rejected by both Jordan and Palestinians.

Jordanian Custodianship of the Holy Sites

The interview also addressed Israel’s repeated violations of the status quo in Jerusalem. Muasher affirmed that the current Israeli government practically breaches the Jordanian-Israeli peace treaty, unlike Rabin’s government which respected Jordanian custodianship of Islamic holy sites. He pointed out that these violations represent a major challenge to Jordan, which continues to insist on its historic role in protecting the holy sites.

Regional Situation: Syria and Lebanon

In a broader regional context, Muasher discussed Syria, expressing concern over Israeli incursions in southern Syria and attempts to exploit internal divisions to fragment the country. He confirmed that Jordan supports Syria’s unity and opposes any civil war that could threaten its national security. He proposed adopting a participatory system in Syria to ensure representation of all components, noting that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham controls only a limited part of Syrian territory.

Regarding Lebanon, he addressed the issue of Hezbollah’s disarmament, saying that confining arms to the state has become a national and international demand. He explained that Hezbollah faces increasing pressure to accept this principle, especially as Iranian influence wanes due to reduced military and financial supply channels.

Role of the United States and Trump

On the U.S. role, Muasher noted that the Trump administration has no political horizon to end the occupation and focuses only on stopping the Gaza war for economic gains. He criticized the U.S. failure to engage with Arab initiatives for Gaza’s reconstruction or support for a Palestinian state, considering Trump not a "man of peace" in the true sense but someone seeking only temporary agreements serving his economic interests.

Hamas and the Palestinian Project

In conclusion, Muasher addressed criticisms directed at Hamas, especially after the October 7 operation. He stressed that military actions must serve a clear political goal: ending the occupation. He called for a unified Palestinian project based on elections representing the Palestinian people, considering the current Palestinian Authority no longer able to claim legitimate representation. He emphasized the necessity of Palestinian unity against the common enemy, noting that divisions between Hamas and the Authority weaken the Palestinian position.

Muasher urged strengthening Palestinian resilience through aid and anchoring Palestinians on their land, affirming the importance of the Jordanian and Egyptian stance rejecting displacement. He expressed cautious optimism for the long term, pointing out that demographic realities will eventually assert themselves, making continued occupation impossible.