Thousands of Jordanians took to the streets on Friday in marches chanting "No" to a looming plan to forcibly displace the residents of Gaza. Protesters made it clear that they were prepared for any scenario to confront the displacement scheme. They also reminded Israel of the Battle of Karameh, in which the Jordanian army defeated Israeli forces in 1968.

These voices emerged in parallel with media reports citing Jordanian sources stating that the kingdom is "ready for war" if Israel attempts to forcibly displace Palestinians into Jordanian territory. While these statements reflect genuine concerns in Amman, the potential scenarios extend beyond military confrontation to complex diplomatic and political considerations.

Jordan’s position against the forced displacement of Palestinians has been resolute and clear. Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi was the first Jordanian official to describe such an act as a "declaration of war," highlighting the kingdom’s deep-seated fears of any attempt to alter the demographic balance. This is particularly concerning given that Palestinians who fled in 1948 and 1967 already constitute a significant portion of Jordan’s population.

However, despite this unprecedented rhetoric, the key question remains: Is military action a serious possibility, or merely a political bargaining tool? With a 335-kilometer border shared with Israel and the occupied West Bank, Jordan enjoys strategic geographic advantages. Yet, a direct confrontation with Israel remains a high-risk gamble due to the kingdom’s existing alliances and security limitations.

Jordan’s close ties with the United States play a pivotal role in its decision-making. Washington remains Amman’s primary financial and military supporter, providing at least $1.45 billion annually under a memorandum of understanding signed until 2029. Additionally, a 2021 military cooperation agreement further cements their security partnership.

However, Jordan is actively seeking to diversify its strategic partnerships to avoid over-reliance on the United States. This is evident in its recent €3 billion strategic agreement with the European Union, which includes grants, aid, investments, and soft loans.

The reality is that Europe lacks the geopolitical influence and military weight of the United States in the region, making any move towards confrontation with Israel a highly complex and risky proposition. Nonetheless, these partnerships remain a crucial part of Amman’s strategy to reduce political and economic pressures.

Former Jordanian official Mamdouh Al-Abadi, who served as Deputy Prime Minister, ruled out military action. However, he stated, "If the flood comes, everyone will drown with us," referring to Israel, placing the cancellation of the peace treaty on the table as an option.

Despite the strong rhetoric, Jordan is likely to prioritize diplomatic and political escalation over military action. The kingdom is expected to leverage its international standing to rally opposition against any Israeli attempts at forced displacement, drawing on its religious and political legitimacy as custodian of Jerusalem’s holy sites and its longstanding role as a defender of Palestinian rights.

Additionally, Jordan is counting on its regional and global alliances, particularly with the United States. King Abdullah II’s upcoming visit to Washington is expected to be a key moment for diplomatic efforts, where Amman will push for a clear American stance against any Israeli displacement plans.