AmmanNet – Hadeel Al-bess

With the Israeli occupation announcing its readiness to launch a military ground operation in the city of Rafah, near the Egyptian border, concern is increasing about the possibility of a humanitarian catastrophe, with mounting opposition to the occupation’s plans to displace the population of the Strip.

It is estimated that there are approximately 1.4 million Palestinians in Rafah, after the occupation army forced hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in the northern Gaza Strip to migrate to the south, where Rafah was a safe place for them.

Since the start of Operation "Al-Aqsa Flood", on October 7 of last year, Israel has begun to strengthen the siege on the Gaza Strip from all sides, and to impose restrictions on the resistance. The ‘Philadelphia Axis’ has become one of the most important strategic areas targeted in the Israeli plan to isolate the Strip, and air strikes have begun. Bombing the border between Egypt and Gaza.

At the beginning of December last year, the Israeli occupation forces launched an exceptional attack along the border between Egypt and the Gaza Strip, under the pretext of destroying the tunnels used by the resistance to smuggle weapons, while the Israeli Broadcasting Authority revealed the Israeli government’s intention to control the Philadelphia Axis.

War scenarios on Rafah

Dhaifallah Al-Daboubi, a military expert specializing in Israeli affairs, points out that the Israeli occupation divided its operations and organized its fighting approach in the Gaza Strip, according to the governorates in the Strip, as it started in the North Governorate, then headed to Gaza, then Deir Al-Balah, then Khan Yunis, and finally reached Rafah, and it confronted each governorate separately, with the aim of ending military operations in any governorate if it was able to reach Hamas leaders.

Al-Daboubi believes that there are many indicators indicating the approaching military operation in Rafah during the next few days, including Israel’s announcement of its readiness to enter Rafah, and the call for reserves in the southern region in order to cross into the region. Also, hope for the peace process has been lost, as the conditions have become between the resistance and Israel are out of reach, and both of them adhere to their opinions.

Regarding the Israeli government’s announcement of mobilizing reserve soldiers in preparation for launching a military ground operation in the city of Rafah, Egypt threatened to suspend the peace treaty with Israel if the operation was carried out, according to Israeli media.

The Philadelphia Axis, or Salah al-Din Axis, extends from the Mediterranean Sea in the north to the Kerem Shalom crossing in the south along the Egyptian border with the Gaza Strip, which is about 14 kilometers.

Excluding the suspension of the peace treaty

The peace treaty that Egypt signed with the Israeli occupation in 1979, known in the media as the “Camp David” Treaty, stipulated a buffer zone along the border, or what was known as the Philadelphia Axis.

The most prominent provisions of the treaty include ending the state of war, normalizing relations, Israel’s complete withdrawal of its armed forces and civilians from the Sinai Peninsula, and keeping the zone demilitarized.

Al-Daboubi ruled out Egypt's suspension of the peace treaty because there are special conditions related to the borders with Gaza. The agreement includes preventing the presence of more than one military division inside the Sinai region, and only allows the entry of 40 vehicles, for humanitarian reasons in cases of an attack on Rafah.

He believes that there are difficult challenges facing the Israeli forces, between the invasion and entry into Rafah and ensuring the protection of civilian lives as the United States demands, as one and a quarter million Gazans reside in Rafah, with the occupation insisting on launching an attack on Rafah as it is the last stronghold of Hamas, and their beliefs in the presence of leaders and hostages.

Repercussions of the war on Egypt

The Egyptian authorities reject the presence of any Israeli forces in the Philadelphia axis adjacent to the Egyptian border, as Israel has no right, according to the agreements signed between the two sides, to violate the existing security arrangements without the approval of Egypt, which confirms that it destroyed all the tunnels that were used for smuggling between it and the Gaza Strip, and prevented the entry of prohibited materials into the Gaza Strip. Inside the Gaza Strip, it denied Israel's allegations that the resistance used the border line to carry out its operations and smuggle weapons into the country.

Egypt also strengthened its forces following the Israeli attacks on the Philadelphia axis, and with many displaced persons heading to the city of Rafah and the border areas, it increased barriers and fortified the vicinity of the watchtowers and various military sites in the buffer zone.

For his part, Professor of Political Science, Dr. Khaled Shneikat, believes that the war on Rafah will greatly affect the stability of Egypt, and it is not possible to rely much on public opinion and the international community, but it may reveal more of the true picture about Israel if it is implemented, which will lead to major losses. Among civilians.

Shneikat believes that continuing the war on the Gaza Strip with the aim of achieving Netanyahu’s Jewish vision, which is the impossibility of Israel obtaining security with the presence of 2 million and 400 thousand Palestinians in Gaza, constitutes a danger that requires opening the door to displacement, whether voluntarily or forcibly.

The data indicates that the situation is moving towards military operations more than a political solution, unless there is significant international pressure or a change in the Israeli popular and political position, such as the occurrence of large demonstrations to stop the war, or the Palestinian factions withdraw from their demands, and if they retreat from that, the war will stop completely. Temporarily after the liberation of the prisoners held by Hamas and then its return, according to Shneikat.

Since the beginning of the war, the Israeli occupation has been displacing the population of the Gaza Strip by destroying the infrastructure, health and educational facilities, and hospitals, which makes life in Gaza impossible and pushes the population towards displacement.

The Israeli occupation is pressing charges of committing "genocide" before the International Court of Justice following the massacres committed in the Gaza Strip, for the first time in its history, which was met with regional and global welcome for putting an end to Israel's impunity.