Can Amman Put the Brakes on the "Accelerating Israeli Annexation" Machine?

Amman fears a ‘soft transfer’ of Palestinians from the occupied territory, with experts warning it could trigger a ‘regional earthquake’
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Strenuous efforts are being made by the Royal Hashemite Documentation Center, an affiliate of the Royal Court, to restore documents and deeds proving Palestinian ownership of their lands. Some of these records date back to the era of Ottoman rule and earlier.

According to Muhannad Mubaidin, Director General of the Royal Hashemite Documentation Center, "These documents can be utilized in the event a case is filed at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) against the decisions of the Israeli Ministerial Committee for National Security (the Cabinet)."

"The work at the Documentation Center regarding Palestine land documents did not start today; it began 18 years ago. We have restored documents related to land registries dating back to the Ottoman Tabu (title deed) law of 1858, and later, registries from the Mandate period."

"Today, working on these documents is very important because even if Israel disregards international law, this is essential for memory—and the 'memory wars' Israel uses to portray Palestinian lands as having no property, owners, or inhabitants."

Accelerating Israeli Decisions

This comes after the Israeli Cabinet approved a series of decisions leading to a radical change in the legal and civil reality in the occupied West Bank.

The Israeli decisions included the cancellation of the Jordanian law that prohibits the sale of Palestinian lands to Jews in the West Bank, as well as declassifying land registries and transferring building permit powers in the Hebron settlement cluster from the Palestinian municipality to the Israeli "Civil Administration."

Amman views Israel's decision to cancel the 1953 Jordanian law—which protected West Bank real estate for decades against sale to foreigners—as a "demographic declaration of war" that uproots the existing status quo.

According to Jordanian experts, Jordanian concern is no longer limited to scenarios of "creeping annexation" or "piece-by-piece erosion" that the Kingdom has monitored cautiously for years. Instead, it sees this step as the official inauguration of the "total annexation" phase, which targets not only the geography of the West Bank but directly strikes at the artery of Jordanian national security.

Senator Omar Al-Ayasra, a member of the Arab and International Affairs Committee in the Senate, believes that "the cancellation of the Jordanian law is not merely a symbolic change, but a transition to the stage of accelerated, gradual annexation of the West Bank."

According to Al-Ayasra, this measure represents a "leapfrogging" of stages aimed at completely removing Jordan's hand from the sensitive land file and exposing the legal cover that protected Arab properties, thereby opening the door to "legitimizing" their transfer to the occupation.

Historically, Jordan has been closely linked to the West Bank, having administered it from its unification in 1950 until the administrative and legal disengagement in 1988. Despite the disengagement, the West Bank remained an integral part of Jordanian national security due to demographic, economic, and geographical interconnections. The 1953 Jordanian law, still in effect in the West Bank, aimed to preserve lands and prevent the penetration of Israeli settlement by banning land sales to non-Jordanians.

Demographic and Security Threats

One of the most dangerous potential repercussions of the annexation measures is the threat of demographic displacement targeting both Jordan and Palestine. Jordan, which hosts large numbers of Palestinian refugees, fears new waves of displacement that could destabilize its internal security and impose massive economic and social pressures. This radical change on the ground in the West Bank has direct implications for Jordanian security.

According to Al-Ayasra: "The real battle is a demographic one par excellence. Suffocating the geographical space for Palestinians and striking their economic structure through the confiscation of lands and farms is nothing but a prelude to 'soft transfer.' This systematic pressure, coupled with a blocked political horizon and rising unemployment, aims to push Palestinians toward the option of migration—a scenario Amman views as a nightmare touching the core of its national security."

What are Jordan's options in the face of Israeli decisions?

Jordanian options seem limited to "diplomatic and legal maneuvering spaces," as Jordan finds itself in a "critical corner," according to Al-Ayasra.

"It possesses nothing but the 'hammer of diplomacy.' Instead of military escalation or political suicide by canceling the 'Wadi Araba' [peace treaty], Amman is adopting a strategy of 'Persistent Diplomatic Pressuring.' The Kingdom moves through the Arab and Islamic 'Group of Eight' to pressure Washington, in parallel with attempts to rehabilitate the Palestinian Authority and support the steadfastness of Palestinians economically to keep them on their land, in a race against time to prevent the West Bank from turning into a human reservoir overflowing toward the Jordanian border."

Meanwhile, political analyst Lamis Andoni believes that "Jordan cannot continue the policy of waiting for the storm or sufficing with security arrangements; it is in dire need of a solid Arab cover to pull it out of its isolation by Israel. The current strategy, which hesitates to use real pressure cards such as canceling the gas agreement or normalization tracks, may be interpreted in Tel Aviv as a green light to proceed with the plan to liquidate the Palestinian cause at the expense of Jordanian geography if Jordan does not take practical measures."

Andoni raises a fundamental question about Jordan's tools of power; while Jordan sees itself restricted by the need for the American umbrella, Andoni reminds us that Washington needs Jordan and its strategic location just as much, especially given the increasing US military presence under the pretext of the "Iranian threat."

The Israeli decision provides Israeli legal cover for the confiscation of unregistered or abandoned lands and the massive expansion of settlements, threatening large-scale demographic change in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, which could lead to the displacement of Palestinians toward Jordan.

Here, retired Major General and military expert Dr. Mamoun Abu Nuwar sees it as an "undeclared war" on Jordan, which has long described the displacement of Palestinians to Jordan as a "declaration of war."

"Jordan follows an approach of preventive diplomacy backed by force, focusing on the Hashemite Custodianship and the holy sites as a red line. Jordan's options, should diplomacy be exhausted, could reach the level of suspending agreements, downgrading them, or even stopping security coordination."

"Jordan relies on its status as a major non-NATO ally and on international positions rejecting annexation, despite Israel's indifference to international laws."

"The Jordanian defensive military readiness is prepared and trained to deal with such an Israeli threat, which is considered a red line for us."

The General warns that any imbalance leading to "forced displacement" will strike the demographic balance in Jordan and create internal unrest, "which might push Jordan to declare the borders a military zone to prevent displacement."

He concludes: "Jordan will not allow this project to pass, and Israeli overreach could lead to a violent conflict extending to the entire region, emphasizing that Israel will not succeed in such a conflict against Jordan given the gravity of Jordan's geopolitical location, which could cause an earthquake in the region."

The Jordanian position is based on international legitimacy, relying on Security Council resolutions such as Resolution 2334, which condemns any measures to change the legal and demographic character of the occupied territory, according to the Jordanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement rejecting the Israeli decisions.

Writer and journalist Lamis Andoni describes the Israeli move as a "moment of truth" that no previous Israeli government dared to reach. Andoni believes that the Arab bet on Donald Trump's promises to brake the annexation is a bet on a mirage; while Trump sells "time" to Arab capitals, Netanyahu’s government is racing against time to impose an irreversible geo-political reality.

Andoni stresses that Bezalel Smotrich is not just a rogue minister, but the actual architect of government policy, now executing to the letter his 2017 plan to swallow the West Bank. She criticizes what she describes as "coolness" in dealing with the threat, asserting that the Israeli danger no longer targets Palestinian sovereignty alone but directly threatens "the stability of the regime and its throne" in Amman.

Amman finds itself before a moment of truth: either the "hammer of diplomacy" and historical documents succeed in braking Smotrich’s project, or the entire region will face a "geopolitical earthquake" that may change the face of the map, where the aftershocks will not stop at the West Bank borders but will extend to strike the depth of regional stability.