Amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and the widening conflict between the United States and Israel on one side, and Iran on the other, Jordan finds itself facing complex security and political challenges. Al-Rai newspaper focused on assessing the potential risks to the Kingdom, analyzing various scenarios from the perspective of each columnist, providing a comprehensive view of the war’s implications for Jordan and the region.

Analysts in Jordan consider Iraq—the country directly east of Jordan—as the most critical front in the event of an expanded U.S.-Israeli war against Iran. Multiple readings indicate that Baghdad faces a fragile internal situation, making it vulnerable to being drawn into the conflict, especially with the presence of U.S. bases on its territory, pro-Iranian armed groups, and sectarian divisions between Sunnis and Shiites. If these tensions intensify, they could lead to arms smuggling or the movement of armed groups toward Jordan’s borders, further complicating Jordan’s security and posing significant military and logistical challenges.

Jordan’s border with Iraq stretches for 180 kilometers and remains open to all possibilities, while the border with Syria extends 375 kilometers, and the border with occupied Palestine exceeds 365 kilometers, multiplying the Kingdom’s security and financial burdens and requiring careful monitoring of potential threats. Additionally, the issue of Iraqi Kurdistan could further complicate matters if it acts independently of Baghdad in favor of Iranian Kurds, potentially threatening Iraq’s stability and the regional political balance.

Al-Rai highlights that Jordan faces compounded pressures due to its geography and open borders, while also considering humanitarian and political dimensions. Despite attacks and challenges, Jordan continues to support the Palestinian people in Gaza and the West Bank by providing humanitarian aid, medical and educational services, while maintaining balanced relations with Iran as a historical neighbor and emphasizing its refusal to join alliances that could lead to direct confrontation with any regional party.

Analysts stress that Jordan’s primary interest lies in Iraq’s stability and preventing it from being dragged into war, while carefully monitoring Iranian and U.S. military and political maneuvers and managing their economic and security repercussions on the Kingdom, especially in terms of securing its extensive and varied borders and containing potential refugee flows.

Amid these regional tensions, the following are the key perspectives from Al-Rai’s columnists:

1. Maher Abu Tair – Iraq as a Critical Front

Maher Abu Tair emphasizes that Iraq constitutes the most dangerous front for Jordan if the war escalates, due to its geographical proximity and fragile internal political situation. He points to the presence of U.S. bases, pro-Iranian armed groups, and sectarian rifts between Sunnis and Shiites, which could facilitate arms smuggling or the entry of militant groups into Jordan, alongside potential refugee flows. He also notes the length of Jordan’s borders with Iraq (180 km) and with Syria and Palestine (375 km and 365 km respectively), which increases the Kingdom’s security and logistical burdens. Abu Tair warns of potential moves by Iraqi Kurdistan acting independently of Baghdad in favor of Iranian Kurds, which could further complicate the regional political landscape. His conclusion: Jordan must ensure Iraq’s stability and prevent it from being drawn into the war to avoid widespread regional disintegration.

2. Amer Al-Sbeileh – U.S. Strategy and Reshaping Iran

Amer Al-Sbeileh focuses on U.S. strategies in confronting Iran, noting that the war began with clear labels: “Epic Fury” by the U.S. and “Lion’s Roar” by Israel. His analysis indicates that the U.S. aims for a fundamental change in Iran, including its leadership and political structure, not just its nuclear and missile programs. Airstrikes and intelligence operations were used to weaken the Iranian system internally and impose control over its airspace, while Iran responded with a “chaos strategy,” targeting oil tankers and Gulf infrastructure and attempting to expand tensions to Cyprus, Turkey, and Azerbaijan. Al-Sbeileh notes that this strategy inadvertently pushed several countries closer to the U.S. position, effectively forming a de facto international coalition.

3. Fahd Al-Khitan – Chaos and Regional Implications

Fahd Al-Khitan highlights the effects of the chaotic war on the region, pointing out that the U.S. administration acts reactively without a clear post-war plan. He argues that the war against Iran lacks clear objectives, with the focus on forcing the Iranian regime to submit to U.S.-Israeli hegemony, without considering regional stability or the fate of local populations. He adds that Iran has capitalized on the U.S.’s poor management of the conflict, turning it into a crisis that threatens the global economy and key energy and transport sectors, extending the war’s impact far beyond Iran’s borders.

4. Hamaat Fara’neh – Jordan’s Humanitarian and Political Position

Hamaat Fara’neh outlines Jordan’s official and humanitarian stance, emphasizing that the Kingdom continues to support the Palestinian people despite challenging circumstances. Initiatives include distributing aid in Gaza, providing medical and educational support in Gaza and the West Bank, and maintaining balanced relations with Iran as a historical neighbor. Fara’neh stresses that Jordan refuses to be drawn into any alliance with Israel against Iran, focusing instead on regional stability and national sovereignty, while urging Iran to adjust its policies to avoid further escalation against neighboring Arab states.