During Bashar al-Assad's years in power, Syria became a major hub for the production and trafficking of Captagon, a synthetic stimulant that has spread widely across the Middle East. This illicit trade has caused catastrophic effects on neighboring countries, particularly Jordan, which has suffered greatly from drug smuggling across its borders with Syria. With increasing discussions about the potential fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime due to the Syrian revolution and shifting power dynamics in the country, questions arise about the fate of the Captagon empire and its impact on Jordan and the wider region.

Captagon: A Trade Backed by the Regime

During the Syrian war, Captagon trade emerged as one of the primary sources of funding for the Assad regime and its allies. International reports indicate that Syria, under Assad's rule, became the world's largest producer of Captagon. The regime exploited the chaos of war to manage drug smuggling networks in cooperation with local and regional militias, turning the country into a global center for the production of this substance.

Captagon factories were spread across regime-controlled areas, including regions near the Jordanian border, where drugs were smuggled to Gulf countries through complex trafficking routes. This was not merely a criminal enterprise but a massive trade generating billions of dollars annually for the regime, helping it finance its military operations and suppress opposition.

Jordan’s Suffering from Drug Smuggling

Jordan, as Syria's neighbor, has been one of the most affected countries by this illicit empire. The border between the two countries stretches over 375 kilometers, making it difficult to fully control smuggling operations. During the war years, attempts to smuggle Captagon into Jordan doubled, with traffickers using innovative and dangerous methods, including drones and booby-trapped vehicles carrying drug shipments.

Jordan faced several challenges due to this phenomenon:

1. Crisis in public health and society: The number of drug addicts in Jordan rose significantly, putting pressure on the country's healthcare and social systems.
2. Security threats: The Jordanian border became a constant battleground with smuggling gangs supported by Syrian militias, leading to casualties among Jordanian security forces.
3. Economic impact: The Jordanian government incurred significant costs to bolster border security, including deploying additional forces and using advanced technologies to monitor smuggling operations.

The Fall of Assad’s Regime: The End of the Captagon Empire?

With the increasing likelihood of Bashar al-Assad's regime falling due to the renewed popular revolution and the regime losing control over large parts of the country, it is essential to consider the future of Captagon trade. Many analysts suggest that the regime’s collapse will disrupt the smuggling networks it supported, but this alone will not be enough to eradicate the trade entirely. Several factors will determine this:

1. Dismantling production networks: There must be international and local efforts to dismantle Captagon factories and prevent their reactivation by other militias or terrorist groups.
2. Rebuilding security institutions: After the regime’s fall, Syria will need to rebuild its security institutions to ensure border control and prevent the country from being used as a base for drug trafficking.
3. Regional cooperation: Collaboration between neighboring countries such as Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon, and Turkey will be essential to stop drug smuggling and ensure regional stability.

What Will Change After the Revolution?

The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime presents an opportunity to improve security in the region, especially for Jordan. Several positive changes could occur after the revolution:

1. Enhanced border security: With a new Syrian government committed to combating organized crime, security coordination between Jordan and Syria could improve to control the borders.
2. Reduced drug flow: If Captagon factories and smuggling networks are dismantled, this could significantly reduce the flow of drugs into Jordan and Gulf countries.
3. End of militia support: The fall of the regime would end the support Damascus provided to militias involved in drug smuggling.
4. Rebuilding economic ties: With stability in Syria, economic and trade relations between the two countries could resume, easing economic pressures on Jordan.

Expected Challenges

Despite optimism about eradicating Captagon trade after the regime's fall, there are significant challenges that Jordan and the region may face:

1. Security chaos in Syria: Armed or terrorist groups may exploit the security vacuum in Syria to reorganize drug smuggling networks.
2. Ongoing demand for Captagon: The high demand for this drug in Gulf countries makes it difficult to completely eliminate the trade.
3. Reconstruction challenges: The focus on rebuilding Syria may make combating drug trade a secondary priority for the new government.

Jordan’s Role in the Next Phase

Jordan will play a pivotal role in ensuring regional stability after Assad's regime falls. Jordan’s efforts should focus on:

1. Enhancing security cooperation: Working with the new Syrian government and neighboring countries to coordinate anti-drug smuggling efforts.
2. Increasing international support: Seeking international assistance to secure its borders and bolster the capabilities of its security forces.
3. Community awareness: Launching awareness campaigns within Jordan to reduce drug demand and address the effects of addiction.

Conclusion

The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime represents a historic opportunity to end the Captagon empire that has harmed Syria and its neighbors, particularly Jordan. Despite the many challenges the region may face during the transitional phase, regional and international cooperation could ensure stability and eradicate the drug trade. The hope remains that nations and their people can overcome crises and build a better future free from wars and organized crime.