Jordanian writer and economic analyst Salameh Al-Daraawi said Jordan-Iraq economic relations are currently going through a period of "unjustified cooling and decline," pointing to a series of developments and decisions that have affected trade and energy flows between the two countries in recent months.

Speaking to Radio Al-Balad, Al-Daraawi said the decline is clearly reflected in trade indicators and Jordanian exports to Iraq, as well as the halt in Iraqi crude oil deliveries to Jordan for several months, the introduction of new customs measures and fees on imports, and a recent truck crisis at the border.

Al-Daraawi noted that a Jordanian government delegation visited Iraq at the beginning of the new Iraqi government's term and met with the Iraqi prime minister. However, he said developments that followed the visit contained indications that had not been expected by the Jordanian side.

He said that one day after the meeting, the Iraqi government decided to redirect the planned oil pipeline route from Basra to Aqaba toward Baniyas instead. Al-Daraawi described the decision as a "shock" to Jordan, particularly given the importance of the pipeline project to economic relations between the two countries.

Iraqi Oil Deliveries Halted for Months

On the oil issue, Al-Daraawi said the agreement to supply Jordan with Iraqi crude was renewed in November last year, but shipments have not reached the Kingdom since then.

"From November until today, not a single barrel or shipment of oil has entered Jordan," he said, describing the continued suspension as one of the clearest indicators of the deterioration in economic relations between the two countries.

The agreement allowed Jordan to receive Iraqi crude oil, but Al-Daraawi played down the direct impact of the suspension on Jordan's energy sector, saying the Kingdom is capable of securing its energy and petroleum-product needs from other sources.

He said the volume previously supplied by Iraq, approximately 10,000 barrels per day, is not large enough to have a significant impact on Jordan's overall energy system, even when measured against the country's total requirements.

He also pointed to challenges associated with refining the type of Iraqi crude supplied to Jordan, which, in his assessment, further reduces its significance for the Jordanian energy sector.

According to Al-Daraawi, Iraqi oil has primarily represented part of the broader framework of economic cooperation and trade between the two countries rather than a critical component of Jordan's energy security.

Iraqi Fees and Measures Put Pressure on Jordanian Exports

Al-Daraawi also linked the current economic cooling to a series of measures introduced by Iraq in recent months, including customs duties on imports that, he said, have affected Jordanian exports to the Iraqi market.

He said the fees had increased significantly, alongside other measures that have caused concern among Jordanian exporters.

The Iraqi market is an important destination for Jordanian exports, Al-Daraawi said, adding that any increase in the cost of Jordanian goods entering Iraq, or any additional complexity in border procedures, directly affects the ability of companies and exporters to compete.

Truck Crisis and Border Measures

Al-Daraawi also addressed the recent truck crisis between the two countries, saying one of its main causes was, in his view, delays by the Iraqi side in implementing the necessary procedures at border crossings.

Taken together, he said, these developments are affecting trade activity between the two countries at a time when trade indicators are already pointing to a decline in Jordanian exports.

Data for the first seven months of the year, he said, indicate a decline in exports and bilateral trade, which he estimated at around 2.5 to 3 percent. He said the trend warrants attention, particularly because it follows years of growth and expansion in Jordanian-Iraqi trade relations.

"There is something happening behind the scenes," Al-Daraawi said, arguing that developments are affecting the continuity of the economic relationship or limiting its potential for further growth. He called for the recent developments to be examined as part of a broader picture rather than simply as a dispute over the suspension of oil shipments.

Suspension of Jordanian Electricity Exports Has Limited Impact on Jordan

Regarding the suspension of Jordanian electricity supplies to western parts of Iraq, Al-Daraawi said the halt in electricity exports has had little impact on Jordan's energy sector.

He explained that the quantities Jordan had been supplying to Iraq were limited compared with the Kingdom's overall electricity needs, meaning that the suspension does not represent a significant problem for Jordan.

Iraq, by contrast, is more dependent on electricity supplies from Jordan, Al-Daraawi argued, pointing to continued power outages and electricity shortages in the country.

He said Iraq continues to experience significant outages and a severe shortage in electricity supplies, but recent developments suggest, in his assessment, that the importance of Jordanian electricity supplies has not yet been reflected in the way the electricity interconnection issue is being handled.

The persistence of electricity shortages in Iraq has made power cuts almost routine for Iraqi citizens, he said, which, in his view, helps explain why external electricity supplies are not necessarily treated as a new or exceptional issue.

Aqaba Is Becoming Increasingly Important to Iraq

Despite his criticism of several Iraqi measures, Al-Daraawi stressed that Jordan has continued to support trade with Iraq, keeping its border crossings open and making the Port of Aqaba available for Iraqi imports.

He said Aqaba is currently facing increasing pressure as a result of rising Iraqi demand, noting that a significant portion of Iraq's needs for oils, petroleum products and imported goods passes through the port.

Iraq currently imports a significant share of its requirements for oils and some petroleum products through Jordan, Al-Daraawi said, contributing to increased pressure on Aqaba's port facilities and logistics services.

The developments reveal a contradiction in the current economic relationship, he said. While some traditional areas of cooperation, particularly oil, have declined, Jordan's importance as a trade and logistics route for the Iraqi market has increased.

An Economic Relationship in Need of Review

Al-Daraawi's remarks suggest that the current challenges in Jordan-Iraq economic relations extend beyond a single sector, encompassing oil, trade, transportation, border crossings and electricity.

While Iraqi oil supplies to Jordan have stopped, some Jordanian exports have declined amid new fees and procedures, a truck crisis has emerged, and Jordanian electricity supplies to parts of Iraq have ended following changes to the country's electricity network.

At the same time, the Port of Aqaba continues to play an important role in the movement of goods bound for Iraq, with Iraqi demand for port, transport and storage services increasing.

In Al-Daraawi's assessment, this picture reflects a period of decline and cooling in economic relations between Amman and Baghdad, despite continued shared interests and the reliance of parts of the Iraqi economy on Jordanian infrastructure and trade gateways.

He argues that the current phase requires the two sides to address outstanding issues, particularly those involving oil, customs duties, border procedures and truck movement, in order to protect shared commercial and economic interests and prevent procedural disputes from developing into a prolonged deterioration in economic relations.